March 01, 2004
The New Phone System
Clay Shirky is usually a sharply on point analyst, but he seems to have slightly missed the point in hisVoIP - Plan A vs Plan B piece. Shirky's concern is technology that allows you to place phone calls through your computer (VoIP or Voice over Internet Protocol), and the threat it places on the old phone system. "Plan A is 'Replace the phone system slowly and from within," Plan B is far more radical: 'Replace the phone system. Period.'" But what Shirky ignores is that Plan C is already long in effect, and successful. The dominant phone system has already been replaced, not by VoIP, but by mobile phones.
I've been using my cell phone as my sole phone number for close to 3 years now without a problem. More importantly, every single person of my generation or younger I know who has moved in the past couple years has made the same choice. The cellular phone has rendered the old phone company into a vestigial organ, albeit a large slowly dying one. In countries that never had great wired phone infrastructures in the first place the process is even more dramatic, large chunks of the globe are going straight to cell phones leaving the old phone monopolies in the dust.
Mobile phone versus landline? Its not really a choice. A landline might be slightly more reliable, maybe. And it maybe slightly cheaper during peak hours, maybe. But really, why bother when you already have a phone you carry with you everywhere, and turn on and off at whim? One with a phone number you've had for years and doesn't get any phone solicitations. A phone you can answer while sending IMs and seemlessly continue the conversation out the door and onward to your next destination. Would you rather give up your home phone or cell? The choice is pretty clear for most people. The most important service the local phone companies offer nowadays is access to the internet.
Now the old phone companies won't just disappear, like Western Union, where you can still send telegrams, they will evolve while continuing to offer old services to a shrinking pool of customers. VoIP is a legitimate business too, although I highly suspect it will never get anywhere near the size of either the old phone monopolies or the new mobile phone oligarchies.
And there we have the new problems. While most places in the world no longer are stuck with one phone provider, few (if any) have more then a half dozen mobile providers. A decade and change ago VoIP might have represented an important challenge to the communications power structure. But now its a footnote and the power structure has shifted to wireless, potentially generating a whole new set of issues.
Posted by William Blaze at March 1, 2004 09:08 PM | TrackBack"Mobile phone versus landline? Its not really a choice. A landline might be slightly more reliable, maybe. And it maybe slightly cheaper during peak hours, maybe. But really, why bother when you already have a phone you carry with you everywhere, and turn on and off at whim?"
'Cause long distance is a bitch, and DSL only comes over registered phone lines in Canada. You've got it lucky in the US.
Posted by: tobias c. van Veen on March 2, 2004 12:21 AMThe market VoIP targets is mostly commercial voice services. There are still a lot of people working at a desk with a phone on the desk and a PBX connecting all those phones to Ma Bell. Those people also have a computer on their desk, and there is a router connecting all those computers to the internet. Once someone figures a quick and reliable way to plug the phones in the router and get rid of both the PBX and Ma Bell's services... Ma Bell will suddenly lose a sizeable piece of income.
Posted by: laurent on March 2, 2004 01:16 AMlaurent, I don't doubt that VoIP is a legitimate business. But the point is that 10-20 years ago breaking Ma Bell's hold on the market meant something. Now? Who cares? Its the Sprint, T-Mobile, Cingular/ATT oligarchy that holds the power.
tobias, just took a look at the Rogers ATT rates, ouch. That fucking sucks. Long distance is practically an unknown in the US cell plans, call from anywhere to anywhere, same rate regardless...
Posted by: Abe on March 2, 2004 01:44 AMProblem with cell phones in a city like NY is that the buildings are so densely built that often you can't get reception. This has been true in 2 of the last 3 apts I've lived in, so unfortunately it's not yet practical to give up the land line.
Western Union also does enormous business with money wire transfers. They have an edge over banks with immigrants who send money home, as banks often require the recipient to have an account at the same bank, which very often isn't possible.
I suspect Ma Bells will figure out a couple of niche markets of their own (or at least try) once the mobile industry works out their bugs and the majority makes the permanent switch to cells.
Posted by: ss on March 2, 2004 12:13 PMss - that's exactly the point with Western Union, they may still send telegrams, but they've evolved far beyond that business. The second "T" in AT&T is of course for "telegraph" as well. The phone companies are probably not going to die (just perhaps merge), but they will never be the hegemonic "Ma Bell" anymore.
As for NY, yeah that's an issue. I've never had a problems, but my parents apartment is pretty bad, generally take a walk to Riverside park to do my phone business when I visit.
Posted by: Abe on March 2, 2004 02:09 PMPersonally, I hope you're right that the mobile culture is already unshakably in place, given that "large chunks of the globe are going straight to cell phones". Plus, they're so convenient. Either way, I know I won't be sad to see the 'Ma Bell hegemony' break up like a bad cell phone call -- which presumably will also be a thing of the past.
Posted by: ss on March 2, 2004 09:24 PMThere's one other aspect, and that is the conventional phone companies very quiet moves to replace their own voice infrastructures with VoIP links, particularly in areas where they want to hop over an ILEC, rather than paying them an access fee. Also, with the big carriers replacing their core infrastructure over the next number of years with an MPLS core, voice will indeed be sent over IP. So, in effect, Plan A is already happening - they just aren't publicizing it very loudly.
Posted by: Mark Federman on March 3, 2004 02:17 PMIndeed Mark, I think a lot of big office phone systems are all digital now too. And more interesting is that most mobile phone systems are digital as well, but certainly not using IP as the protocol. Its no longer as much an issue of who controls the wires, cables and switches, but an issue of who sets the protocols and controls the gateways.
Posted by: Abe on March 3, 2004 04:05 PMI firmly believe in the power of wireless as "the future" however, I don't think they've completely won the battle yet.
A. In a widescale emergency situation such as a "terrorist attack" mobiles are remaarkably underpowered to suppport the number of calls that will ensue. Now think beyond trying to call Mom and Dad and wonder how our "safety officials" etc. will coordinate...there has to be some redundancy bult in. VoIP could provide this, especailly when you consider you can take your VoIP phone wherever you go and plug in wherever there is access and the calls will "find" you.
B. There's still no E-911 working on mobiles, so if you have an emergency at home, and you call for help, they can't trace you to your house. So, if you're choking and can't talk, you better have a landline or they're not likely going to be able to triangulate where you are in time. (Yeah, it's coming...but it's gonna take a whlie. Longer than we're being led to believe).
C. Get outside of the city, think beyond suburban life...or travel across country. It's remarkable the number of areas taht don't have cell coverage at all. Some "national" carriers don't cover entire states!
Posted by: Saint Arved on March 4, 2004 10:09 AMi read about wifi voip phones. (a combination of plan a+b+c?). the drawback is the short range of 802.11 and finding access.
the wireless providers route calls through the old PSTN, so they are part of the existing telecomm power structure. with voip+wifi you are more nomadic.
Posted by: peter on March 6, 2004 07:07 AMgod no, there is no way I'm relying on wifi for my telephone calls, bad enough when I need to rely upon it for internet...
not to mention most of those wifi connects just hook back into the phone networks too. At some point the ownership of the infrastructure becomes an academic point. I don't know enough about the phones to say for sure, but it seems like the cell companies have enough leverage to ensure the backbone providers don't fuck up their program. Isn't there a surplus of backbone too?
Politically I suppose it comes down to the relative openness and anonymity of IP. Leverage to prevent the backbone providers and groups with leverage over them (governments) from controlling the architecture. But we've established IP, the phone layer aspect is optional to that plan. On another level its just economic, remove a layer of the middlemen game in order to reduce costs. And here, at least for the now in the US, capitalist competition actually appears to have worked as promised. Prices are way down from the monopoly days. Ma Bell is broken, but now we are at the mercy of the cellular oligarchs...
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